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Sarà pubblicato sul Vol. 4, No. 3, 2012, dell'International Journal of Sustainable Economy (IJSE), la pubblicazione scientifica:

  • An extension of Aaron's sustainable rate of return to partially funded pension system

M. Angrisani, C. Di Palo, (2011)

Abstract

The sustainability of defined contribution pension schemes with a funded component is studied under the assumption of a constant contribution rate. To this aim, we use the new methodology introduced in Angrisani (2006) and Angrisani (2008) for the analysis and the management of partially funded pension systems: assuming the rule on the rate of return on the pension liability and by means of the necessary and sufficient condition of sustainability stated in the previous cited references, we provide a new theorem for the defined contribution pension schemes with a funded component; it establishes a necessary condition for the sustainability under hypotheses of general stabilisation and constant contribution rate. The Aaron’s rule on the sustainable rate of return for unfunded pension schemes constitutes a particular case of the rule on the sustainable rate of return for partially funded pension systems used in our theorem.

 

E' stato presentato alla Conferenza internazionale International Actuarial Association (Hong Kong, 6-9 maggio 2012), l'articolo scientifico:

  • Logical errors and inconsistencies of the Swedish pension system

M. Angrisani, C. Di Palo, (2012)

Abstract

The Swedish pension system is, probably, the most advanced NDC, with a funded component, system in the world for inspiratory principles and data transparency. In particular, it is well known for the so-called Automatic Balance Mechanism, which is structured to achieve the long-term sustainability. But, this mechanism is not really able to ensure the logical sustainability of the system, namely it does not ensure against the insolvency. In our paper, by means of the methodology provided in “The logical sustainability of the pension system” by Angrisani (Pure Mathematics and Applications, 2008), we analyse this pension system and we bring to light its logical errors and inconsistencies, which are not of trivial type.

 

E' stato presentato alla Fifth International Conference MAF 2012 – Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Insurance and Finance (Venezia, 10-12 aprile 2012), l'articolo scientifico:

  • The problem of the baby boom generations retirement

M. Angrisani, C. Di Palo, (2012)

Abstract

In the present study, we consider the problem affecting mandatory pay-as-you-go pension systems of several developed countries caused by the retirement of baby-boom generations. In the next decades this will be a relevant problem for mandatory pension systems because they will have to drain the “demographic wave” of retirees with, hence, a relatively small number of contributors. In many cases in which the contribution rate cannot be increased, because it is already too high, future pensions will become lower. In our work, we consider a Notional Defined Contribution pension system in stable state (see Angrisani and Di Palo, 2011), which, hence, is steadily able to pay current pensions with current contributions. We explain how this pension system has to face the turmoil produced by a demographic wave. Specifically, we consider the case in which the demographic wave problem is faced starting from its arising, namely when the demographic wave enters affecting the contributors group. We provide logically based solutions to this problem according to the logical sustainability approach (see Angrisani 2006, 2008). In literature, solutions of the demographic wave problem, which are “logically ensured”, do not exist. For example, in fact, the issue approach by means of stochastic simulations or with overlapping generations models does not provide logically ensured solutions.

 


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